Claims are down nearly 24%. So why are some restoration shops having their best stretches while others wait for the phone to ring?
That was the question on stage in Las Vegas, at The Experience, where Albi's Alex Duta sat down with restoration coach Nate Cisney — 20-plus years as an owner, exited via buyout, now coaching small-to-mid shops through Restoration Made Simple. The 36-minute conversation is the clearest operator-side answer to the down market we've heard. We've embedded the key moments so you can hear it straight from them.
The identity crisis
Cisney's diagnosis starts here, and he doesn't soften it:
“It's an identity crisis that our industry is going through. We have for the longest time ever attached ourselves to this identity of insurance and now we're running into headwinds in the claim space. I think those that are going to succeed can first and foremost identify themselves as a home service contractor with a specialty of damage restoration versus an insurance restoration contractor.”
His challenge to the room: “Claims might be down but I promise you the hustlers are still out there and they're killing it even in down markets. Some of the best companies actually do better in the down market while everybody else is complaining. Do you want to complain or do you want to go hustle?”
Everything downstream — marketing, sales process, who you think your customer is — follows the identity. Keep reading with that lens.
Claims are down. Occurrences aren't.
Cisney doesn't dispute the LexisNexis numbers. He disputes what they mean:
“You can't tell me that ice maker lines have stopped breaking. You can't tell me that bathtubs have stopped overflowing. I don't buy it. So what I do buy is that insurance will never lose. We've learned that they are never, ever, ever going to lose.”
His read: carriers are raising deductibles, denying more, pulling out of markets. The water is still flowing; the claims just aren't being filed. “Most people that I've talked to, their close ratio is getting worse. And the reason why is because the homeowner says, 'Well, my deductible is too high' or 'the insurance says sprinklers are no longer covered.' They've chosen not to go through insurance whether it's denied or not. Well, that's still an opportunity. Something still happened to these people. Their house is still wet.”
The work exists. The claim doesn't. That's the opening — if you know how to sell it.
What actually kills you: cash flow
Before the playbook, the warning. Asked what kills a restoration business, Cisney doesn't say sales:
“I know lots of companies that we work with that have had their best sales year ever, and it's been their worst financial year ever because they don't know how to manage it. They're doing very large projects that are fire losses, all their cash is tied up on those jobs, and in two weeks they've got payroll and they're asking me, how do I make payroll? That's not the definition of success to me.”
Duta adds his own scar tissue from the $7M–$10M stretch: “The 7 to 10 million for our company was the worst. I remember telling my partner, I was doing the 50, 60 hour weeks and I'm like, I don't want to work more to make less.”
Cisney's number-one advice, all of it in six words: “Chase profit. Chase cash in the bank.” If the owner wouldn't show the real numbers to their spouse, the company is being run wrong.
The playbook: sell it, finance it, own the relationship
Here's where the identity shift turns into operations. Cisney's plumber test: “If you call a plumber and a plumber shows up and says, 'Ma'am, all you got to do is replace the washer, you can do all this for like 50 bucks at Home Depot' — the homeowner's going to look at you and go, 'Dude, just fix my stupid faucet.' We're no different than a plumber. You walk into that door and you should assume that you're going to get that job just like the plumber does. They called you because they have a problem. Fix their problem.”
And the move most restorers haven't made — financing:
Duta walks the exact pitch his company uses on a $15,000 job: “Mrs. Jones, it's $15,000. We're going to unlock a line of credit for you — $5,000 upfront, the rest financed at $400 a month, 0% interest. You do have insurance, and some or all of this might be covered. But if it's not, don't worry. When you do get that insurance money, you can take it and go to Disneyland.”
The structural win: “If I tell you upfront the price is 15 grand and insurance comes in at 12 because they want to screw you over — we're not fighting on the back end. Your bill was 15 grand. You paid for it. Insurance underpaid you, but it's only a $3,000 shortage, you got it financed, you're fine anyway, and we could truly be there to service the customer and finish the job.”
No more stalling mid-job when the carrier comes in short. No more begging the adjuster. The job gets finished because the homeowner — the actual customer — is financed.
Which brings the closer:
“Why are we talking to adjusters when the person that signed the paperwork was the homeowner? The fiduciary duty is with the homeowner. They are the centerpiece of everything. So it's one thing to talk — it's another thing to bow down.”
The 12-to-24-month warning
Cisney closes the loop on timing: “There's going to come a time here in the next 12 to 24 months where carriers are just going to keep moving up deductibles, and there's going to be all this white space. That's going to hurt — especially those that are very carrier-centric. I'm not saying I'm against insurance. I'm saying we have to evolve. I promise they're going to squeeze till you bleed to death.”
His final frame, borrowed from a conference stage: “Success is if you could build a company that could outlive you. So many restorers don't think of it that way. They buy themselves a job.”
Claims down 24%. Occurrences not down. The shops that get this are home-service contractors who finance the work and own the homeowner. The ones that don't are insurance contractors waiting for a phone that isn't ringing.
Source: “Claims Are Down, So Why Are Some Restorers Still Crushing?” — Albi After Hours, recorded live at The Experience, Las Vegas. Alex Duta with Nate Cisney, Restoration Made Simple. Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD7lJ3dHLaY